Riding profile

Surrey Newton

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Surrey Newton: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Surrey Newton, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sukh Dhaliwal

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.8%
  • Conservative 37.9%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • PPC 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereSurrey Newton 48.8%37.9%3.5%0.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +6.9 35.8% +2.1 10.6% −7.1 1.0% −0.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +6.9 34.8% +3.1 14.2% −10.7 1.0% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
5.4 pts
Turnout
63.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sukh Dhaliwal Elected Liberal 20,263 49.5 Parliamentarian
Harjit Singh Gill Conservative 18,023 44.0 Radio Broadcaster
Raj Singh Toor NDP 2,467 6.0 Retired
Salman Zafar Other 222 0.5 Claims Adjuster

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 45.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 54.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46