Riding profile
Surrey Newton
The question
Surrey Newton: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSurrey Newton | 55.7% | 35.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +8.1 | 33.6% +2.3 | 8.4% −7.4 | 1.1% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +7.7 | 32.1% +3.8 | 10.6% −9.7 | 1.0% −0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Surrey Newton, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sukh Dhaliwal
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sukh Dhaliwal Elected | Liberal | 20,263 | 49.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Harjit Singh Gill | Conservative | 18,023 | 44.0 | Radio Broadcaster |
| Raj Singh Toor | NDP | 2,467 | 6.0 | Retired |
| Salman Zafar | Other | 222 | 0.5 | Claims Adjuster |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 45.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 54.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46