Riding profile

Delta

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Delta: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Delta, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jill McKnight

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.4%
  • Conservative 37.2%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereDelta 51.4%37.2%3.1%1.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +9.4 35.8% +1.4 10.6% −7.5 1.0% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +9.5 34.8% +2.4 14.2% −11.1 1.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.6 pts
Turnout
74.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jill McKnight Elected Liberal 32,802 51.8 Former Executive Director
Jessy Sahota Conservative 27,314 43.2 Police Officer
Jason McCormick NDP 2,787 4.4 Transit Operator
Natasa Sirotic PPC 390 0.6 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 76.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 23.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46