Richmond East—Steveston
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond East—Steveston | 53.5% | 37.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.5%+6.9 | 32.8%+4.9 | 1.9%−0.4 | 9.0%−7.8 |
| National averageCanada | 46.8%+6.7 | 30.4%+7.2 | 2.7%−1.2 | 11.2%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Parm Bains · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 2.1 points, with 63.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 15.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parm Bains Elected | Liberal | 25,705 | 48.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Zach Segal | Conservative | 24,605 | 46.1 | Public Affairs Advisor |
| Keefer Pelech | NDP | 2,251 | 4.2 | Senior Ministerial Advisor |
| Steven Ji | Green | 494 | 0.9 | Financial Investor |
| Other candidates | 364 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Granville Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated