Riding profile

Richmond Centre--Marpole

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Richmond Centre--Marpole: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Richmond Centre--Marpole, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 44% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chak Au

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
63%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.2%
  • Conservative 43.5%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • PPC 0.9%
  • Green 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereRichmond Centre--Marpole 44.2%43.5%3.1%0.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +2.3 35.8% +7.7 10.6% −7.5 1.0% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +2.3 34.8% +8.7 14.2% −11.1 1.0% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.8 pts
Turnout
59.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chak Au Elected Conservative 23,532 49.6 City Councillor
Wilson Miao Liberal 21,232 44.7 Real Estate Consultant
Martin Li NDP 2,109 4.4 Human Resources Professional
Michael Sisler Green 420 0.9 Shuttle Operator
David Wang PPC 193 0.4 Unemployed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 48.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 51.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46