Riding profile
Richmond Centre--Marpole
The question
Richmond Centre--Marpole: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 3%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond Centre--Marpole | 51.1% | 41.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +3.5 | 33.6% +7.9 | 3.0% −1.9 | 1.1% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +3.1 | 32.1% +9.5 | 2.7% −1.6 | 1.0% |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Richmond Centre--Marpole, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chak Au
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chak Au Elected | Conservative | 23,532 | 49.6 | City Councillor |
| Wilson Miao | Liberal | 21,232 | 44.7 | Real Estate Consultant |
| Martin Li | NDP | 2,109 | 4.4 | Human Resources Professional |
| Michael Sisler | Green | 420 | 0.9 | Shuttle Operator |
| David Wang | PPC | 193 | 0.4 | Unemployed |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 48.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 51.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46