Riding profile

Vancouver Kingsway

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Vancouver Kingsway: will NDP lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
23%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 43.1%
  • NDP 36.3%
  • Conservative 16.7%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative PPC
HereVancouver Kingsway 43.1%36.3%16.7%1.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −4.5 8.4% +27.9 33.6% −16.9 1.1% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% −4.9 10.6% +25.7 32.1% −15.4 1.0% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver Kingsway, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 36% for the NDP, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Don Davies

Sits with NDP

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
0.6 pts
Turnout
63.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Don Davies Elected NDP 18,788 37.2 Parliamentarian
Amy K. Gill Liberal 18,485 36.6 CFO
Ravinder Bhatia Conservative 12,352 24.5 Businessman
Imtiaz Popat Green 499 1.0 Mental Health Worker
Fiona Wang PPC 322 0.6 Legal Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 63.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 36.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46