Riding profile

Vancouver Granville

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Vancouver Granville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 68.5%
  • Conservative 20.9%
  • Green 1.8%
  • NDP 1.3%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green NDP
HereVancouver Granville 68.5%20.9%1.8%1.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% +20.8 33.6% −12.7 3.0% −1.2 8.4% −7.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +20.5 32.1% −11.2 2.7% −0.9 10.6% −9.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver Granville, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 68% vote share, against 21% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Taleeb Noormohamed

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
33.1 pts
Turnout
69.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Taleeb Noormohamed Elected Liberal 37,010 62.1 Parliamentarian
Marie Rogers Conservative 17,133 28.8 Business Woman
Sukhi Singh Sahota NDP 4,489 7.5 Finance Coordinator
Jerry Kroll Green 945 1.6 Business Person

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 75.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 24.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46