Riding profile

Vancouver East

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Vancouver East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
60%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 42.7%
  • Liberal 42.0%
  • Conservative 10.0%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Liberal Conservative Green
HereVancouver East 42.7%42.0%10.0%2.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 8.4% +34.3 47.6% −5.6 33.6% −23.6 3.0% −0.9
National averageCanada 10.6% +32.1 48.0% −6.0 32.1% −22.1 2.7% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver East, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 80% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jenny Kwan

Sits with NDP

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
8.1 pts
Turnout
62.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jenny Kwan Elected NDP 24,945 43.6 Parliamentarian
Mark Wiens Liberal 20,287 35.5 Realtor
Lita Cabal Conservative 10,162 17.8 IT Business Analyst
Nikida Steel Green 1,099 1.9 Social Worker
Meghan Emily Murphy PPC 329 0.6 Writer
Kimball Cariou Other 329 0.6 Journalist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 80.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 19.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46