Riding profile

Vancouver Centre

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Vancouver Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.5%
  • Conservative 22.4%
  • NDP 6.5%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereVancouver Centre 61.5%22.4%6.5%1.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% +13.9 33.6% −11.2 8.4% −1.8 3.0% −1.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +13.5 32.1% −9.7 10.6% −4.1 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver Centre, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hedy Fry

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.8 pts
Turnout
63.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hedy Fry Elected Liberal 29,855 55.2 Parliamentarian
Elaine Allan Conservative 16,368 30.3 Management Consultant
Avi Lewis NDP 6,807 12.6 Associate Professor (UBC)
Scott MacDonald Green 757 1.4 Medical Doctor - General Practice
Christopher Varga PPC 211 0.4 Real Estate Agent
Drew William McPherson Independent 63 0.1 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46