Riding profile

Vancouver Centre

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Vancouver Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Vancouver Centre, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hedy Fry

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.6%
  • Conservative 24.4%
  • NDP 9.2%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereVancouver Centre 54.6%24.4%9.2%1.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +12.7 35.8% −11.5 10.6% −1.4 2.6% −1.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +12.7 34.8% −10.4 14.2% −5.0 2.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.8 pts
Turnout
63.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hedy Fry Elected Liberal 29,855 55.2 Parliamentarian
Elaine Allan Conservative 16,368 30.3 Management Consultant
Avi Lewis NDP 6,807 12.6 Associate Professor (UBC)
Scott MacDonald Green 757 1.4 Medical Doctor - General Practice
Christopher Varga PPC 211 0.4 Real Estate Agent
Drew William McPherson Independent 63 0.1 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46