Riding profile

New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 33% for the NDP, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jake Sawatzky

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.1
P(close race)
33%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 39.4%
  • NDP 33.3%
  • Conservative 25.6%
  • Green 1.2%
  • PPC 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereNew Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville 39.4%33.3%25.6%1.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% −2.5 10.6% +22.7 35.8% −10.3 2.6% −1.4
National averageCanada 41.9% −2.5 14.2% +19.1 34.8% −9.2 2.1% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
3.5 pts
Turnout
67.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jake Sawatzky Elected Liberal 19,547 35.1 Instructional Facilitator
Peter Julian NDP 17,574 31.5 Parliamentarian
Indy Panchi Conservative 17,507 31.4 Real Estate Agent
Tara Shushtarian Green 690 1.2 Social
Lourence Almonte Singh Independent 385 0.7 Self-Employed Realtor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 73.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 26.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46