Riding profile

New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.3%
  • NDP 30.7%
  • Conservative 23.6%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereNew Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville 46.3%30.7%23.6%1.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −1.3 8.4% +22.3 33.6% −10.0 3.0% −1.5
National averageCanada 48.0% −1.7 10.6% +20.1 32.1% −8.5 2.7% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jake Sawatzky

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
3.5 pts
Turnout
67.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jake Sawatzky Elected Liberal 19,547 35.1 Instructional Facilitator
Peter Julian NDP 17,574 31.5 Parliamentarian
Indy Panchi Conservative 17,507 31.4 Real Estate Agent
Tara Shushtarian Green 690 1.2 Social
Lourence Almonte Singh Independent 385 0.7 Self-Employed Realtor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 73.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 26.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46