Riding profile
Surrey Centre
The question
Surrey Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSurrey Centre | 54.3% | 35.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +6.7 | 33.6% +1.6 | 1.1% +0.1 | 3.0% −1.8 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +6.3 | 32.1% +3.1 | 1.0% +0.2 | 2.7% −1.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Surrey Centre, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Randeep Sarai
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randeep Sarai Elected | Liberal | 19,900 | 48.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Rajvir Dhillon | Conservative | 17,920 | 43.2 | Lawyer |
| Dominic Denofrio | NDP | 2,811 | 6.8 | Constituency Assistant |
| Krishan Khurana | Green | 395 | 1.0 | Customer Service |
| Beverly Tanchak | PPC | 246 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Ryan Abbott | Other | 182 | 0.4 | Industrial Painter |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 53.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 46.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46