Riding profile

Surrey Centre

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

Surrey Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Surrey Centre, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Randeep Sarai

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.4%
  • Conservative 37.1%
  • NDP 3.6%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereSurrey Centre 47.4%37.1%3.6%1.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +5.4 35.8% +1.3 10.6% −6.9 1.0% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +5.5 34.8% +2.3 14.2% −10.5 1.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
4.7 pts
Turnout
58.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Randeep Sarai Elected Liberal 19,900 48.0 Parliamentarian
Rajvir Dhillon Conservative 17,920 43.2 Lawyer
Dominic Denofrio NDP 2,811 6.8 Constituency Assistant
Krishan Khurana Green 395 1.0 Customer Service
Beverly Tanchak PPC 246 0.6 Retired
Ryan Abbott Other 182 0.4 Industrial Painter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 53.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 46.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46