Riding profile

Fleetwood--Port Kells

Federal riding — BC · Suburban · vancouver metro

The question

Fleetwood--Port Kells: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Fleetwood--Port Kells, a suburban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gurbux Saini

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.1%
  • Conservative 38.5%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereFleetwood--Port Kells 47.1%38.5%3.0%1.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +5.1 35.8% +2.7 10.6% −7.6 1.0% +0.6
National averageCanada 41.9% +5.2 34.8% +3.8 14.2% −11.2 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
3.7 pts
Turnout
63.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gurbux Saini Elected Liberal 23,250 47.9 Businessman
Sukh Pandher Conservative 21,439 44.2 Businessman
Shannon Permal NDP 2,885 5.9 Court Clerk
John Hetherington PPC 499 1.0 Artist
Murali Krishnan Green 460 0.9 Notary Public

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 57.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 42.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46