Riding profile
South Surrey--White Rock
The question
South Surrey--White Rock: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Surrey--White Rock | 57.0% | 37.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +9.3 | 33.6% +4.1 | 3.0% −1.4 | 1.1% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +9.0 | 32.1% +5.7 | 2.7% −1.2 | 1.0% −0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
South Surrey--White Rock, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ernie Klassen
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Klassen Elected | Liberal | 33,094 | 50.5 | Self-Employed Florist |
| Kerry-Lynne Findlay | Conservative | 29,924 | 45.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Jureun Park | NDP | 1,634 | 2.5 | Hotel Manager |
| Christine Kinnie | Green | 875 | 1.3 | Secretary, School District 36 |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 80.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 19.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46