Riding profile

South Surrey--White Rock

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

South Surrey--White Rock: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 57.0%
  • Conservative 37.8%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green PPC
HereSouth Surrey--White Rock 57.0%37.8%1.5%0.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% +9.3 33.6% +4.1 3.0% −1.4 1.1% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +9.0 32.1% +5.7 2.7% −1.2 1.0% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

South Surrey--White Rock, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ernie Klassen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
4.8 pts
Turnout
71.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ernie Klassen Elected Liberal 33,094 50.5 Self-Employed Florist
Kerry-Lynne Findlay Conservative 29,924 45.7 Parliamentarian
Jureun Park NDP 1,634 2.5 Hotel Manager
Christine Kinnie Green 875 1.3 Secretary, School District 36

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 80.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 19.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46