Riding profile

South Surrey--White Rock

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

South Surrey--White Rock: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

South Surrey--White Rock, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ernie Klassen

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.0%
  • Conservative 39.7%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • Green 1.3%
  • PPC 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSouth Surrey--White Rock 50.0%39.7%2.6%1.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +8.1 35.8% +3.9 10.6% −8.0 2.6% −1.3
National averageCanada 41.9% +8.1 34.8% +4.9 14.2% −11.6 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
4.8 pts
Turnout
71.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ernie Klassen Elected Liberal 33,094 50.5 Self-Employed Florist
Kerry-Lynne Findlay Conservative 29,924 45.7 Parliamentarian
Jureun Park NDP 1,634 2.5 Hotel Manager
Christine Kinnie Green 875 1.3 Secretary, School District 36

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 80.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 19.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46