Riding profile

Langley Township--Fraser Heights

Federal riding — BC · Suburban · vancouver metro

The question

Langley Township--Fraser Heights: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
62%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.9%
  • Conservative 43.7%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative PPC Green
HereLangley Township--Fraser Heights 47.9%43.7%1.1%1.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% +0.3 33.6% +10.0 1.1% 3.0% −2.0
National averageCanada 48.0% −0.1 32.1% +11.6 1.0% +0.1 2.7% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Langley Township--Fraser Heights, a suburban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 44% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tako Van Popta

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.4 pts
Turnout
70.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tako Van Popta Elected Conservative 33,574 51.4 Parliamentarian
John Aldag Liberal 28,034 42.9 Former Parliamentarian
Holly Isaac NDP 2,611 4.0 Relief Postal Worker
Debora Soutar Green 491 0.8 Retired
Alex Joehl Other 347 0.5 Meat Department Manager
Sepehr Haghighat PPC 303 0.5 Biologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 19.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46