Riding profile

Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay

Federal riding — BC · Rural · bc interior

The question

Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.0
P(close race)
28%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.0%
  • Conservative 36.0%
  • NDP 7.4%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSimilkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay 42.0%36.0%7.4%1.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −5.6 33.6% +2.4 8.4% −1.0 3.0% −1.2
National averageCanada 48.0% −6.0 32.1% +3.9 10.6% −3.2 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay, a rural riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Helena Konanz

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.8 pts
Turnout
71.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Helena Konanz Elected Conservative 30,054 44.1 City Councillor
Gloria Morgan Liberal 25,431 37.3 Retired Lawyer
Linda Sankey NDP 11,033 16.2 Executive Director, SOS Brain Injury Society
Philip Mansfield Green 1,044 1.5 Software Engineering Manager
Barry Dewar PPC 654 1.0 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 95.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46