Riding profile
Yellowhead
The question
Yellowhead: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Yellowhead, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 30% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.
Sitting member
William Stevenson
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYellowhead | 43.7% | 29.9% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 44.0% −0.3 | 35.7% −5.8 | 7.2% −2.8 | 1.3% +0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +8.9 | 41.9% −12.0 | 14.2% −9.8 | 1.0% +0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Stevenson Elected | Conservative | 47,863 | 69.1 | Chartered Professional Accountant |
| Michael Fark | Liberal | 17,469 | 25.2 | Director of Recovery |
| Avni Soma | NDP | 2,753 | 4.0 | Entrepreneur |
| Vicky Bayford | PPC | 952 | 1.4 | Operations Technician |
| Dale Heath | Other | 253 | 0.4 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.0%
- Anglophone 94.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 4.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46