Riding profile
Yellowhead
The question
Yellowhead: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYellowhead | 43.4% | 33.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% −0.4 | 40.8% −7.7 | 5.2% −2.6 | 1.3% +0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +11.3 | 48.0% −14.9 | 10.6% −8.0 | 1.0% +0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Yellowhead, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 33% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.
Sitting member
William Stevenson
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Stevenson Elected | Conservative | 47,863 | 69.1 | Chartered Professional Accountant |
| Michael Fark | Liberal | 17,469 | 25.2 | Director of Recovery |
| Avni Soma | NDP | 2,753 | 4.0 | Entrepreneur |
| Vicky Bayford | PPC | 952 | 1.4 | Operations Technician |
| Dale Heath | Other | 253 | 0.4 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.0%
- Anglophone 94.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 4.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46