Riding profile

Yellowhead

Federal riding — AB · Rural · ab rural

The question

Yellowhead: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Yellowhead, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 44-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 30% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

William Stevenson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 43.7%
  • Liberal 29.9%
  • NDP 4.4%
  • PPC 1.8%
  • Green 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereYellowhead 43.7%29.9%4.4%1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 44.0% −0.3 35.7% −5.8 7.2% −2.8 1.3% +0.6
National averageCanada 34.8% +8.9 41.9% −12.0 14.2% −9.8 1.0% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
43.6 pts
Turnout
74.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-29.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
William Stevenson Elected Conservative 47,863 69.1 Chartered Professional Accountant
Michael Fark Liberal 17,469 25.2 Director of Recovery
Avni Soma NDP 2,753 4.0 Entrepreneur
Vicky Bayford PPC 952 1.4 Operations Technician
Dale Heath Other 253 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.0%
  • Anglophone 94.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46