Riding profile

Leduc--Wetaskiwin

Federal riding — AB · Rural · ab rural

The question

Leduc--Wetaskiwin: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 53.1%
  • Liberal 24.0%
  • NDP 2.9%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereLeduc--Wetaskiwin 53.1%24.0%2.9%1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta 43.8% +9.3 40.8% −16.8 5.2% −2.3 1.3% +0.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +21.0 48.0% −24.0 10.6% −7.7 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Leduc--Wetaskiwin, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 24% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Mike Lake

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
57.1 pts
Turnout
71.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-28.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mike Lake Elected Conservative 47,947 74.7 Parliamentarian
Ronald Brochu Liberal 11,136 17.4 Accountant
Katherine Swampy NDP 3,927 6.1 Business Development
Jose Flores PPC 688 1.1 Salesperson
Kirk Cayer Other 318 0.5 Communications
Christopher Everingham Other 145 0.2 Peace Officer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 95.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46