Riding profile

Edmonton Gateway

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Gateway: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Editorial read

Edmonton Gateway, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 34% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tim Uppal

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.5%
  • Conservative 34.1%
  • NDP 5.5%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEdmonton Gateway 47.5%34.1%5.5%1.3%
Provincial averageAlberta 35.7% +11.7 44.0% −9.9 7.2% −1.6 1.3%
National averageCanada 41.9% +5.6 34.8% −0.6 14.2% −8.6 1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
68.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tim Uppal Elected Conservative 26,385 50.6 Consultant
Jeremy Hoefsloot Liberal 19,435 37.3 Lawyer
Madeline Mayes NDP 2,565 4.9 Sales Associate
Rod Loyola Independent 2,455 4.7 Parliamentarian
Ashok Patel Independent 838 1.6 Mechanical Engineer
Paul McCormack PPC 474 0.9 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 73.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 26.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46