Riding profile

Edmonton Griesbach

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Griesbach: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
60%
Mean margin (pts)
1.9
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 35.9%
  • Liberal 35.2%
  • Conservative 28.3%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Liberal Conservative Green
HereEdmonton Griesbach 35.9%35.2%28.3%1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta 5.2% +30.7 40.8% −5.6 43.8% −15.5 1.5% +0.2
National averageCanada 10.6% +25.3 48.0% −12.8 32.1% −3.8 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton Griesbach, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 36% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kerry Diotte

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.2 pts
Turnout
56.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kerry Diotte Elected Conservative 22,256 45.5 Journalist
Blake Desjarlais NDP 16,717 34.1 Parliamentarian
Patrick Lennox Liberal 8,973 18.3 Federal Public Servant
Thomas Matty PPC 318 0.6 Self-Employed
Michael Hunter Green 302 0.6 Classical Guitar Instructor
Alex Boykowich Other 146 0.3 Independent Researcher
Crystal Vargas Independent 118 0.2 Student
Brent Tyson Other 72 0.1 Lawyer
Mary Joyce Other 64 0.1 Artist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46