Riding profile
Edmonton Griesbach
The question
Edmonton Griesbach: will Conservative lose this seat to NDP?
Editorial read
Edmonton Griesbach, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 38% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kerry Diotte
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.5
- P(close race)
- 7%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Conservative | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdmonton Griesbach | 38.1% | 28.6% | 28.5% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 7.2% +31.0 | 44.0% −15.5 | 35.7% −7.3 | 1.2% +0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 14.2% +23.9 | 34.8% −6.2 | 41.9% −13.4 | 2.1% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Diotte Elected | Conservative | 22,256 | 45.5 | Journalist |
| Blake Desjarlais | NDP | 16,717 | 34.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Patrick Lennox | Liberal | 8,973 | 18.3 | Federal Public Servant |
| Thomas Matty | PPC | 318 | 0.6 | Self-Employed |
| Michael Hunter | Green | 302 | 0.6 | Classical Guitar Instructor |
| Alex Boykowich | Other | 146 | 0.3 | Independent Researcher |
| Crystal Vargas | Independent | 118 | 0.2 | Student |
| Brent Tyson | Other | 72 | 0.1 | Lawyer |
| Mary Joyce | Other | 64 | 0.1 | Artist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46