Riding profile

Edmonton Griesbach

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Griesbach: will Conservative lose this seat to NDP?

Editorial read

Edmonton Griesbach, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 38% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kerry Diotte

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 38.1%
  • Conservative 28.6%
  • Liberal 28.5%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Conservative Liberal Green
HereEdmonton Griesbach 38.1%28.6%28.5%1.4%
Provincial averageAlberta 7.2% +31.0 44.0% −15.5 35.7% −7.3 1.2% +0.2
National averageCanada 14.2% +23.9 34.8% −6.2 41.9% −13.4 2.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.2 pts
Turnout
56.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kerry Diotte Elected Conservative 22,256 45.5 Journalist
Blake Desjarlais NDP 16,717 34.1 Parliamentarian
Patrick Lennox Liberal 8,973 18.3 Federal Public Servant
Thomas Matty PPC 318 0.6 Self-Employed
Michael Hunter Green 302 0.6 Classical Guitar Instructor
Alex Boykowich Other 146 0.3 Independent Researcher
Crystal Vargas Independent 118 0.2 Student
Brent Tyson Other 72 0.1 Lawyer
Mary Joyce Other 64 0.1 Artist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46