Riding profile

Edmonton Northwest

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Northwest: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Editorial read

Edmonton Northwest, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Billy Morin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.7
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.4%
  • Conservative 36.6%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEdmonton Northwest 48.4%36.6%5.9%1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta 35.7% +12.6 44.0% −7.4 7.2% −1.2 1.3% +0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +6.5 34.8% +1.8 14.2% −8.3 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.1 pts
Turnout
64.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Billy Morin Elected Conservative 29,194 53.4 Consultant
Lindsey Machona Liberal 20,907 38.3 Executive Director
Omar Abubakar NDP 3,597 6.6 Non-Profit Co-Founder
Albert Carson PPC 593 1.1 Senior Project Manager
Colleen Rice Green 335 0.6 Business Owner

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 79.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46