Riding profile

Edmonton Northwest

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Northwest: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 55.1%
  • Conservative 36.4%
  • NDP 3.7%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereEdmonton Northwest 55.1%36.4%3.7%1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +14.3 43.8% −7.4 5.2% −1.5 1.5% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +7.1 32.1% +4.3 10.6% −6.9 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton Northwest, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Billy Morin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.1 pts
Turnout
64.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Billy Morin Elected Conservative 29,194 53.4 Consultant
Lindsey Machona Liberal 20,907 38.3 Executive Director
Omar Abubakar NDP 3,597 6.6 Non-Profit Co-Founder
Albert Carson PPC 593 1.1 Senior Project Manager
Colleen Rice Green 335 0.6 Business Owner

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 79.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46