Riding profile

Edmonton Riverbend

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Riverbend: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.6%
  • Conservative 33.2%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEdmonton Riverbend 61.6%33.2%3.1%1.1%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +20.8 43.8% −10.6 5.2% −2.1 1.3% −0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +13.6 32.1% +1.1 10.6% −7.5 1.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton Riverbend, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matt Jeneroux

Sits with Liberal

Elected as Conservative · floor_crossingon2026-02-18

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.4 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+23.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matt Jeneroux Elected Conservative 30,343 50.2 Parliamentarian
Mark Minenko Liberal 27,075 44.8 Lawyer
Susan Cake NDP 2,563 4.2 Post-Secondary Professor
Dwayne Dudiak PPC 410 0.7 Automotive Technician

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46