Riding profile

Edmonton Centre

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
42.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.3%
  • Conservative 20.9%
  • NDP 11.7%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEdmonton Centre 63.3%20.9%11.7%1.3%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +22.5 43.8% −22.9 5.2% +6.5 1.3%
National averageCanada 48.0% +15.3 32.1% −11.2 10.6% +1.1 1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton Centre, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 21% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eleanor Olszewski

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
6.4 pts
Turnout
63.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+36.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eleanor Olszewski Elected Liberal 24,138 44.3 Lawyer
Sayid Ahmed Conservative 20,626 37.9 Economist
Trisha Estabrooks NDP 8,440 15.5 Consultant
John Ross PPC 468 0.9 Construction Technologist
David John Bohonos Other 158 0.3 Bus Driver
Gregory Bell Independent 155 0.3 Software Developer
Mike Dutcher Independent 137 0.3 Asset Integrity Specialist
Naomi Rankin Other 133 0.2 Retired Computer Programmer
Ronald S. Billingsley Jr. Independent 106 0.2 Attorney
Merryn Edwards de la O Other 67 0.1 Union Representative

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 85.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46