Riding profile

Edmonton Manning

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Manning: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.1%
  • Conservative 35.9%
  • NDP 4.5%
  • PPC 2.0%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEdmonton Manning 52.1%35.9%4.5%2.0%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +11.2 43.8% −7.9 5.2% −0.7 1.3% +0.7
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.1 32.1% +3.8 10.6% −6.1 1.0% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton Manning, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ziad Aboultaif

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
17.6 pts
Turnout
61.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ziad Aboultaif Elected Conservative 26,445 53.1 Parliamentarian
Blair-Marie Coles Liberal 17,603 35.3 Manager, Education and Engagement
Lesley Thompson NDP 4,935 9.9 Project Manager
Robert Bard PPC 824 1.7 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 79.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46