Riding profile
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan
The question
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 41% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 96% anglophone.
Sitting member
Garnett Genuis
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.3
- P(close race)
- 4%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan | 41.2% | 31.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 44.0% −2.8 | 35.7% −3.8 | 7.2% −2.5 | 1.2% +0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +6.4 | 41.9% −10.0 | 14.2% −9.5 | 2.1% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnett Genuis Elected | Conservative | 54,131 | 66.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Tanya Holm | Liberal | 22,178 | 27.2 | Self-Employed |
| Chris Jones | NDP | 4,136 | 5.1 | Pipe Fitter |
| Jay Sobel | PPC | 497 | 0.6 | Chartered Industrial Designer |
| Randall Emmons | Green | 448 | 0.5 | Arena Operator |
| Mark Horseman | Other | 237 | 0.3 | Consultant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.5%
- Anglophone 96.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 3.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46