Riding profile
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan
The question
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 38%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan | 40.9% | 35.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% −2.9 | 40.8% −5.7 | 5.2% −2.3 | 1.5% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +8.8 | 48.0% −12.9 | 10.6% −7.7 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 41% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 96% anglophone.
Sitting member
Garnett Genuis
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnett Genuis Elected | Conservative | 54,131 | 66.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Tanya Holm | Liberal | 22,178 | 27.2 | Self-Employed |
| Chris Jones | NDP | 4,136 | 5.1 | Pipe Fitter |
| Jay Sobel | PPC | 497 | 0.6 | Chartered Industrial Designer |
| Randall Emmons | Green | 448 | 0.5 | Arena Operator |
| Mark Horseman | Other | 237 | 0.3 | Consultant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.5%
- Anglophone 96.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 3.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46