Riding profile

Edmonton Strathcona

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton Strathcona: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 48.7%
  • Liberal 34.9%
  • Conservative 16.2%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Liberal Conservative Green
HereEdmonton Strathcona 48.7%34.9%16.2%1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta 5.2% +43.5 40.8% −5.9 43.8% −27.6 1.5% +0.2
National averageCanada 10.6% +38.1 48.0% −13.1 32.1% −15.9 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton Strathcona, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 2% francophone, 88% anglophone.

Sitting member

Heather McPherson

Sits with NDP

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
13.8 pts
Turnout
72.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Heather McPherson Elected NDP 28,027 47.0 Parliamentarian
Miles Berry Conservative 19,768 33.1 Registered Nurse
Ron Thiering Liberal 10,709 17.9 Self-Employed
David Joel Wojtowicz PPC 386 0.6 Student
Atul Deshmukh Green 366 0.6 Project Manager
Graham Lettner Independent 250 0.4 Self-Employed
Christian Bourque Other 181 0.3 Industrial landscaper

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.6%
  • Anglophone 88.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46