Riding profile
Edmonton West
The question
Edmonton West: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Editorial read
Edmonton West, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kelly McCauley
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEdmonton West | 50.7% | 36.1% | 5.6% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 35.7% +15.0 | 44.0% −8.0 | 7.2% −1.5 | 1.3% |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +8.8 | 34.8% +1.3 | 14.2% −8.6 | 1.0% +0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly McCauley Elected | Conservative | 31,201 | 52.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Brad Fournier | Liberal | 23,995 | 40.7 | Business Executive |
| Sean McQuillan | NDP | 3,164 | 5.4 | Film Technician |
| Brent Kinzel | PPC | 534 | 0.9 | Yard Supervisor |
| Peggy Morton | Other | 121 | 0.2 | Retired Health Care Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 82.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 17.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46