Riding profile

Edmonton West

Federal riding — AB · Urban · edmonton

The question

Edmonton West: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 57.5%
  • Conservative 35.8%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEdmonton West 57.5%35.8%3.4%1.3%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +16.7 43.8% −7.9 5.2% −1.8 1.3%
National averageCanada 48.0% +9.5 32.1% +3.7 10.6% −7.2 1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Edmonton West, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kelly McCauley

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.1 pts
Turnout
69.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kelly McCauley Elected Conservative 31,201 52.9 Parliamentarian
Brad Fournier Liberal 23,995 40.7 Business Executive
Sean McQuillan NDP 3,164 5.4 Film Technician
Brent Kinzel PPC 534 0.9 Yard Supervisor
Peggy Morton Other 121 0.2 Retired Health Care Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 82.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 17.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46