Riding profile
Red Deer
The question
Red Deer: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRed Deer | 50.0% | 28.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% +6.2 | 40.8% −12.2 | 5.2% −2.9 | 1.5% +0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +17.9 | 48.0% −19.4 | 10.6% −8.3 | 2.7% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Red Deer, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 49-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 29% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 92% anglophone.
Sitting member
Burton Bailey
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Bailey Elected | Conservative | 44,239 | 71.6 | Legislative Assembly Executive Assistant |
| Ayaz Bangash | Liberal | 13,564 | 21.9 | Insurance Broker |
| Elias Assefa | NDP | 2,375 | 3.8 | Constituency Assistant |
| Kyla Courte | PPC | 813 | 1.3 | Produce Manager |
| Ashley MacDonald | Green | 618 | 1.0 | Mental Health Aide |
| Brandon Pringle | Other | 219 | 0.4 | Grocery Clerk |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.3%
- Anglophone 91.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 8.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
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