Riding profile

Ponoka--Didsbury

Federal riding — AB · Rural · ab rural

The question

Ponoka--Didsbury: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
53.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 60.6%
  • Liberal 6.8%
  • NDP 4.9%
  • PPC 2.3%
  • Green 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HerePonoka--Didsbury 60.6%6.8%4.9%2.3%
Provincial averageAlberta 43.8% +16.8 40.8% −34.0 5.2% −0.3 1.3% +1.0
National averageCanada 32.1% +28.5 48.0% −41.2 10.6% −5.7 1.0% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ponoka--Didsbury, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 70-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 7% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Blaine Calkins

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
70.4 pts
Turnout
75.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Blaine Calkins Elected Conservative 56,106 81.8 Parliamentarian
Logan Hooley NDP 7,414 10.8 Student
Grant Abraham Other 2,129 3.1 Self-Employed
Zarnab Zafar Independent 1,641 2.4 Student
Larry Gratton PPC 1,289 1.9 Advanced Care Paramedic

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 96.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46