Riding profile

Cariboo--Prince George

Federal riding — BC · Rural · bc north

The question

Cariboo--Prince George: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Cariboo--Prince George, a rural riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 30% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Todd Doherty

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 54.7%
  • Liberal 29.6%
  • NDP 2.5%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereCariboo--Prince George 54.7%29.6%2.5%1.8%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 35.8% +18.8 41.9% −12.4 10.6% −8.1 2.6% −0.8
National averageCanada 34.8% +19.9 41.9% −12.3 14.2% −11.7 2.1% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
29.8 pts
Turnout
68.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Todd Doherty Elected Conservative 38,175 60.3 Parliamentarian
Clinton Emslie Liberal 19,243 30.4 Chief Executive Officer
Angie Bonazzo NDP 3,900 6.2 Mental Health Support Worker
Jodie Capling Green 1,155 1.8 Yoga Teacher
Rudy Sans PPC 436 0.7 Deputy Sheriff
Kenneth B. Thomson Independent 208 0.3 Lawyer
Jake Wiens Other 174 0.3 Retired Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 95.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46