Riding profile

North Vancouver--Capilano

Federal riding — BC · Urban · vancouver metro

The question

North Vancouver--Capilano: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

North Vancouver--Capilano, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jonathan Wilkinson

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 59.3%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereNorth Vancouver--Capilano 59.3%27.8%3.0%1.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +17.3 35.8% −8.0 10.6% −7.6 2.6% −0.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +17.4 34.8% −7.0 14.2% −11.2 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
26.0 pts
Turnout
71.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jonathan Wilkinson Elected Liberal 37,907 59.8 Parliamentarian
Stephen Curran Conservative 21,339 33.7 Lawyer
Tammy Bentz NDP 2,684 4.2 Script Supervisor
Andrew Robinson Green 1,076 1.7 Consultant
Ehsan Arjmand PPC 256 0.4 Engineer
Oliver King Independent 102 0.2 Investor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46