Riding profile
North Vancouver--Capilano
The question
North Vancouver--Capilano: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Vancouver--Capilano | 62.7% | 22.9% | 9.1% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +15.0 | 33.6% −10.7 | 3.0% +6.1 | 8.4% −6.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +14.7 | 32.1% −9.2 | 2.7% +6.4 | 10.6% −8.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
North Vancouver--Capilano, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jonathan Wilkinson
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wilkinson Elected | Liberal | 37,907 | 59.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Stephen Curran | Conservative | 21,339 | 33.7 | Lawyer |
| Tammy Bentz | NDP | 2,684 | 4.2 | Script Supervisor |
| Andrew Robinson | Green | 1,076 | 1.7 | Consultant |
| Ehsan Arjmand | PPC | 256 | 0.4 | Engineer |
| Oliver King | Independent | 102 | 0.2 | Investor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 78.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 21.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46