Riding profile
North Island--Powell River
The question
North Island--Powell River: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 45%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | NDP | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Island--Powell River | 31.6% | 31.4% | 30.6% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 33.6% −2.0 | 8.4% +23.0 | 47.6% −17.0 | 3.0% −0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% −0.5 | 10.6% +20.8 | 48.0% −17.4 | 2.7% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
North Island--Powell River, a rural riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
Aaron Gunn
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Gunn Elected | Conservative | 31,356 | 38.7 | Filmmaker |
| Tanille Johnston | NDP | 26,357 | 32.6 | Primary Care Regional Manager |
| Jennifer Lash | Liberal | 21,218 | 26.2 | Senior Policy Advisor |
| Jessica Wegg | Green | 1,505 | 1.9 | Lawyer |
| Paul Macknight | PPC | 341 | 0.4 | Painter |
| Glen Staples | Independent | 152 | 0.2 | Retired Math Instructor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.6%
- Anglophone 97.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 1.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46