Riding profile

Cowichan--Malahat--Langford

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc island

The question

Cowichan--Malahat--Langford: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
46%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
72%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 32.6%
  • NDP 31.4%
  • Conservative 30.1%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereCowichan--Malahat--Langford 32.6%31.4%30.1%2.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −15.0 8.4% +23.0 33.6% −3.5 3.0% −0.8
National averageCanada 48.0% −15.4 10.6% +20.8 32.1% −2.0 2.7% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Cowichan--Malahat--Langford, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jeff Kibble

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.6 pts
Turnout
72.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeff Kibble Elected Conservative 28,370 37.2 Retired Veteran
Alistair MacGregor NDP 24,826 32.6 Parliamentarian
Blair Herbert Liberal 21,478 28.2 Real Estate Broker
Kathleen Code Green 1,500 2.0 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 96.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46