Riding profile
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke
The question
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 31.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEsquimalt--Saanich--Sooke | 53.6% | 21.6% | 13.0% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +5.9 | 33.6% −12.0 | 8.4% +4.6 | 3.0% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +5.6 | 32.1% −10.5 | 10.6% +2.4 | 2.7% +0.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 94% anglophone.
Sitting member
Stephanie McLean
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie McLean Elected | Liberal | 36,181 | 49.3 | Lawyer |
| Grant Cool | Conservative | 21,082 | 28.7 | Engineer |
| Maja Tait | NDP | 13,666 | 18.6 | Mayor |
| Ben Homer-Dixon | Green | 1,959 | 2.7 | Student |
| David Schaafsma | Other | 159 | 0.2 | Optometrist |
| Param Bhatti | Independent | 152 | 0.2 | Engineer |
| Robert Crooks | Other | 136 | 0.2 | Provincial Organizer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.7%
- Anglophone 93.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46