Riding profile

Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc island

The question

Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stephanie McLean

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.5%
  • Conservative 23.9%
  • NDP 15.3%
  • Green 2.6%
  • PPC 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereEsquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 48.5%23.9%15.3%2.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +6.5 35.8% −12.0 10.6% +4.7 2.6%
National averageCanada 41.9% +6.6 34.8% −10.9 14.2% +1.1 2.1% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
20.5 pts
Turnout
74.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephanie McLean Elected Liberal 36,181 49.3 Lawyer
Grant Cool Conservative 21,082 28.7 Engineer
Maja Tait NDP 13,666 18.6 Mayor
Ben Homer-Dixon Green 1,959 2.7 Student
David Schaafsma Other 159 0.2 Optometrist
Param Bhatti Independent 152 0.2 Engineer
Robert Crooks Other 136 0.2 Provincial Organizer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.7%
  • Anglophone 93.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46