Riding profile

Nanaimo--Ladysmith

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc island

The question

Nanaimo--Ladysmith: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 35.0%
  • Conservative 28.4%
  • Green 18.3%
  • NDP 9.3%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green NDP
HereNanaimo--Ladysmith 35.0%28.4%18.3%9.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −12.6 33.6% −5.3 3.0% +15.3 8.4% +0.9
National averageCanada 48.0% −13.0 32.1% −3.7 2.7% +15.6 10.6% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nanaimo--Ladysmith, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Tamara Kronis

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.7 pts
Turnout
72.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tamara Kronis Elected Conservative 26,381 35.5 Lawyer
Michelle Corfield Liberal 20,656 27.8 Consultant
Lisa Marie Barron NDP 13,586 18.3 Parliamentarian
Paul Manly Green 13,485 18.1 City Councillor
Stephen Welton PPC 289 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 95.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46