Riding profile
Saanich--Gulf Islands
The question
Saanich--Gulf Islands: a safe seat for the Green Party?
Editorial read
Saanich--Gulf Islands, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Elizabeth May
Sits with Green
Current forecast
Green
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.8
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaanich--Gulf Islands | 38.9% | 31.1% | 20.2% | 5.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 2.6% +36.3 | 41.9% −10.9 | 35.8% −15.6 | 10.6% −5.4 |
| National averageCanada | 2.1% +36.8 | 41.9% −10.8 | 34.8% −14.6 | 14.2% −9.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth May Elected | Green | 31,199 | 39.1 | Parliamentarian |
| David Beckham | Liberal | 25,409 | 31.8 | Renewable Energy Consultant |
| Cathie Ounsted | Conservative | 20,015 | 25.1 | Accountant |
| Colin Plant | NDP | 3,163 | 4.0 | Teacher |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 92.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 7.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46