Riding profile
Saanich--Gulf Islands
The question
Saanich--Gulf Islands: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Green
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 91%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaanich--Gulf Islands | 39.2% | 36.2% | 18.0% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 3.0% +36.2 | 47.6% −11.4 | 33.6% −15.6 | 8.4% −5.5 |
| National averageCanada | 2.7% +36.5 | 48.0% −11.8 | 32.1% −14.1 | 10.6% −7.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saanich--Gulf Islands, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Elizabeth May
Sits with Green
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth May Elected | Green | 31,199 | 39.1 | Parliamentarian |
| David Beckham | Liberal | 25,409 | 31.8 | Renewable Energy Consultant |
| Cathie Ounsted | Conservative | 20,015 | 25.1 | Accountant |
| Colin Plant | NDP | 3,163 | 4.0 | Teacher |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 92.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 7.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46