Riding profile

Victoria

Federal riding — BC · Urban · bc island

The question

Victoria: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Victoria, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 22% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Will Greaves

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.8%
  • NDP 22.0%
  • Conservative 10.7%
  • Green 3.1%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereVictoria 53.8%22.0%10.7%3.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 41.9% +11.9 10.6% +11.4 35.8% −25.2 2.6% +0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +11.9 14.2% +7.8 34.8% −24.1 2.1% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
29.2 pts
Turnout
74.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Will Greaves Elected Liberal 41,128 54.3 Professor
Laurel Collins NDP 18,877 24.9 Parliamentarian
Angus Ross Conservative 12,870 17.0 Stay-at-Home Parent
Michael Doherty Green 2,350 3.1 Lawyer
David Mohr PPC 278 0.4 Retired
Cody Fraser Other 109 0.1 Bar Manager
Mary Moreau Other 83 0.1 Retired
Steve Filipovic Independent 73 0.1 Small Business Owner

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 93.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46