Riding profile
Victoria
The question
Victoria: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVictoria | 58.9% | 19.7% | 8.4% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 47.6% +11.3 | 8.4% +11.4 | 33.6% −25.2 | 3.0% +0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +10.9 | 10.6% +9.1 | 32.1% −23.7 | 2.7% +0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Victoria, an urban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 20% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.
Sitting member
Will Greaves
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Greaves Elected | Liberal | 41,128 | 54.3 | Professor |
| Laurel Collins | NDP | 18,877 | 24.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Angus Ross | Conservative | 12,870 | 17.0 | Stay-at-Home Parent |
| Michael Doherty | Green | 2,350 | 3.1 | Lawyer |
| David Mohr | PPC | 278 | 0.4 | Retired |
| Cody Fraser | Other | 109 | 0.1 | Bar Manager |
| Mary Moreau | Other | 83 | 0.1 | Retired |
| Steve Filipovic | Independent | 73 | 0.1 | Small Business Owner |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.5%
- Anglophone 93.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 6.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46