Riding profile

Courtenay--Alberni

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc island

The question

Courtenay--Alberni: a safe seat for the NDP?

Editorial read

Courtenay--Alberni, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 41% vote share, against 30% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Gord Johns

Sits with NDP

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
15%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 40.7%
  • Conservative 30.3%
  • Liberal 21.9%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Conservative Liberal Green
HereCourtenay--Alberni 40.7%30.3%21.9%1.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 10.6% +30.1 35.8% −5.6 41.9% −20.0 2.6% −0.9
National averageCanada 14.2% +26.5 34.8% −4.5 41.9% −20.0 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
4.5 pts
Turnout
73.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gord Johns Elected NDP 31,617 39.6 Parliamentarian
Kris McNichol Conservative 28,028 35.1 Business Owner
Brian Cameron Liberal 18,078 22.7 Aircraft Engineer
Chris Markevich Green 1,352 1.7 Customer Support Specialist
Thomas Gamble PPC 427 0.5 Entrepreneur
Teresa Knight Other 195 0.2 Substitute Teacher
Jesse Musial Other 69 0.1 Business Management

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 97.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46