Riding profile
Courtenay--Alberni
The question
Courtenay--Alberni: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Courtenay--Alberni, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 41% vote share, against 30% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
Gord Johns
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.3
- P(close race)
- 15%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Conservative | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCourtenay--Alberni | 40.7% | 30.3% | 21.9% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 10.6% +30.1 | 35.8% −5.6 | 41.9% −20.0 | 2.6% −0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 14.2% +26.5 | 34.8% −4.5 | 41.9% −20.0 | 2.1% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gord Johns Elected | NDP | 31,617 | 39.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Kris McNichol | Conservative | 28,028 | 35.1 | Business Owner |
| Brian Cameron | Liberal | 18,078 | 22.7 | Aircraft Engineer |
| Chris Markevich | Green | 1,352 | 1.7 | Customer Support Specialist |
| Thomas Gamble | PPC | 427 | 0.5 | Entrepreneur |
| Teresa Knight | Other | 195 | 0.2 | Substitute Teacher |
| Jesse Musial | Other | 69 | 0.1 | Business Management |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.3%
- Anglophone 97.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 2.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46