Riding profile
Courtenay--Alberni
The question
Courtenay--Alberni: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Competitive
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 22%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Conservative | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCourtenay--Alberni | 38.4% | 28.0% | 27.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 8.4% +30.0 | 33.6% −5.6 | 47.6% −20.6 | 3.0% −1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 10.6% +27.8 | 32.1% −4.1 | 48.0% −21.0 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Courtenay--Alberni, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 38% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
Gord Johns
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gord Johns Elected | NDP | 31,617 | 39.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Kris McNichol | Conservative | 28,028 | 35.1 | Business Owner |
| Brian Cameron | Liberal | 18,078 | 22.7 | Aircraft Engineer |
| Chris Markevich | Green | 1,352 | 1.7 | Customer Support Specialist |
| Thomas Gamble | PPC | 427 | 0.5 | Entrepreneur |
| Teresa Knight | Other | 195 | 0.2 | Substitute Teacher |
| Jesse Musial | Other | 69 | 0.1 | Business Management |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.3%
- Anglophone 97.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 2.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46