Riding profile

Parry Sound--Muskoka

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Parry Sound--Muskoka: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 43.6%
  • Liberal 42.4%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • PPC 2.0%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereParry Sound--Muskoka 43.6%42.4%2.7%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +8.4 49.1% −6.7 4.8% −2.0 1.1% +0.9
National averageCanada 32.1% +11.5 48.0% −5.6 10.6% −7.9 1.0% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Parry Sound--Muskoka, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Scott Aitchison

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.5 pts
Turnout
71.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Scott Aitchison Elected Conservative 33,742 52.2 Parliamentarian
Geordie Sabbagh Liberal 27,563 42.6 Filmmaker
Heather Hay NDP 2,300 3.6 Coodinator, Elder Abuse Prevention Muskoka
Isabel Pereira PPC 1,048 1.6 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 98.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46