Parry Sound—Muskoka
Expected federal by-election in Ontario after the departure of Scott Aitchison (Conservative). The seat is not vacant yet.
The Liberal Party is the favourite, with a 79% chance of winning and 49% of the projected vote.
The forecast
| Party | Projected share | Range (80%) | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 49.1% | | 79% |
| Conservative | 43.9% | | 21% |
| NDP | 3.2% | | <1% |
| People's Party | 2.9% | | <1% |
The forecast starts from our current federal projection for the riding and adds the turnout gap measured at the April 13, 2026 by-elections. It uses no local poll and no estimate of Aitchison’s personal vote. Candidacies and local polls may change it.
What the forecast adjusts
- By-election turnout
- At the April 13, 2026 by-elections, for the same national shift, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by as much: opposition voters turn out less than government voters. Conservative −2.8 · Liberal +3.1
The 2025 result
The race
Scott Aitchison is still the Conservative MP. A by-election will follow once he resigns and a writ is issued. It was not among the six called on November 1, 2026.
- On September 30, 2026, Scott Aitchison announced that he would resign after the fall sitting of Parliament.
- The seat is not yet vacant. No date or new candidate has been confirmed.
Under the Canada Elections Act, the by-election must be called between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.