Riding profile

Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 48.0%
  • Liberal 38.4%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • PPC 1.6%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereHaliburton--Kawartha Lakes 48.0%38.4%2.7%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +12.7 49.1% −10.7 4.8% −2.1 1.1% +0.5
National averageCanada 32.1% +15.9 48.0% −9.6 10.6% −7.9 1.0% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 99% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jamie Schmale

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
17.7 pts
Turnout
72.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jamie Schmale Elected Conservative 42,701 56.6 Parliamentarian
Nell Thomas Liberal 29,223 38.7 Family Physician
Alyea Teel NDP 2,625 3.5 Student
Michael Penman PPC 954 1.3 Propery Management

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 98.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46