Riding profile

Northumberland--Clarke

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Northumberland--Clarke: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.6%
  • Conservative 40.5%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereNorthumberland--Clarke 45.6%40.5%2.6%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −3.5 35.3% +5.2 4.8% −2.2 2.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −2.4 32.1% +8.4 10.6% −8.0 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Northumberland--Clarke, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Philip Lawrence

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Turnout
75.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philip Lawrence Elected Conservative 34,862 49.0 Parliamentarian
John Goheen Liberal 32,648 45.9 Educator
Ava Becker NDP 2,090 2.9 Student
Christina Marie Wilson Green 630 0.9 Teacher
Lisa Bradburn PPC 521 0.7 Psychotherapist
Jody Ledgerwood Independent 270 0.4 Real Estate Broker
John Wesselius Other 171 0.2 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 98.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 1.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46