Riding profile

Bay of Quinte

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · eastern on

The question

Bay of Quinte: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.1%
  • Conservative 37.1%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 2.1%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereBay of Quinte 50.1%37.1%3.2%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +1.0 35.3% +1.8 4.8% −1.6 2.0% +0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +2.1 32.1% +5.0 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bay of Quinte, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Chris Malette

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
5.7 pts
Turnout
69.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Malette Elected Liberal 32,846 50.4 Municipal Councillor
Ryan Williams Conservative 29,130 44.7 Parliamentarian
Kate Crothers NDP 2,373 3.6 Interior Designer
Erica Charlton Green 833 1.3 Operations Coordinator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.1%
  • Anglophone 96.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46