Riding profile

Lanark--Frontenac

Federal riding — ON · Rural · ottawa region

The question

Lanark--Frontenac: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Lanark--Frontenac, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.

Sitting member

Scott Reid

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
84%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.3%
  • Liberal 41.4%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • Green 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereLanark--Frontenac 44.3%41.4%3.9%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +6.8 45.6% −4.3 6.4% −2.4 1.6%
National averageCanada 34.8% +9.5 41.9% −0.5 14.2% −10.3 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.8 pts
Turnout
75.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Scott Reid Elected Conservative 34,186 50.4 Historian
Michelle Foxton Liberal 30,900 45.6 Lawyer
Danielle Rae NDP 1,986 2.9 Legal Assistant
Jesse Pauley Green 741 1.1 Software Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.9%
  • Anglophone 98.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 0.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46