Riding profile
Lanark--Frontenac
The question
Lanark--Frontenac: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.5
- P(close race)
- 79%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLanark--Frontenac | 45.2% | 41.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −3.9 | 35.3% +6.6 | 4.8% −2.2 | 2.0% |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −2.8 | 32.1% +9.7 | 10.6% −8.0 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Lanark--Frontenac, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 98% anglophone.
Sitting member
Scott Reid
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Reid Elected | Conservative | 34,186 | 50.4 | Historian |
| Michelle Foxton | Liberal | 30,900 | 45.6 | Lawyer |
| Danielle Rae | NDP | 1,986 | 2.9 | Legal Assistant |
| Jesse Pauley | Green | 741 | 1.1 | Software Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.9%
- Anglophone 98.3%
- Non-francophone (other) 0.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46