Riding profile

Kanata

Federal riding — ON · Urban · ottawa region

The question

Kanata: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 60.8%
  • Conservative 27.4%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereKanata 60.8%27.4%3.8%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +11.7 35.3% −7.8 4.8% −0.9 2.0%
National averageCanada 48.0% +12.8 32.1% −4.7 10.6% −6.8 2.7% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kanata, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 3% francophone, 82% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jenna Sudds

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.9 pts
Turnout
78.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jenna Sudds Elected Liberal 45,244 60.8 Parliamentarian
Greg Kung Conservative 26,557 35.7 Paramedic
Melissa Simon NDP 1,702 2.3 Small Business Owner
Jennifer Purdy Green 835 1.1 Family Physician
Moinuddin Siddiqui Other 122 0.2 Transit Dispatcher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 3.0%
  • Anglophone 81.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46