Riding profile
Ottawa South
The question
Ottawa South: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 46.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa South | 65.0% | 18.9% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +16.0 | 35.3% −16.4 | 4.8% | 2.0% −0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +17.0 | 32.1% −13.3 | 10.6% −5.8 | 2.7% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Ottawa South, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 65% vote share, against 19% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 7% francophone, 73% anglophone.
Sitting member
David McGuinty
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David McGuinty Elected | Liberal | 43,388 | 65.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Blair Turner | Conservative | 18,010 | 27.1 | Police Officer |
| Hena Masjedee | NDP | 4,017 | 6.0 | Federal Public Servant |
| Nira Dookeran | Green | 642 | 1.0 | Retired |
| Alex Perrier | Other | 259 | 0.4 | Grocery Clerk |
| William Cooper | Other | 155 | 0.2 | Small Business Owner |
| John Redins | Other | 93 | 0.1 | 50 |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 7.4%
- Anglophone 72.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 19.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46