Riding profile
Ottawa South
The question
Ottawa South: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Ottawa South, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 21% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 7% francophone, 73% anglophone.
Sitting member
David McGuinty
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 41.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa South | 61.8% | 20.8% | 6.8% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +16.1 | 37.5% −16.7 | 6.4% +0.4 | 1.6% −0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +19.9 | 34.8% −14.0 | 14.2% −7.4 | 2.1% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David McGuinty Elected | Liberal | 43,388 | 65.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Blair Turner | Conservative | 18,010 | 27.1 | Police Officer |
| Hena Masjedee | NDP | 4,017 | 6.0 | Federal Public Servant |
| Nira Dookeran | Green | 642 | 1.0 | Retired |
| Alex Perrier | Other | 259 | 0.4 | Grocery Clerk |
| William Cooper | Other | 155 | 0.2 | Small Business Owner |
| John Redins | Other | 93 | 0.1 | 50 |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 7.4%
- Anglophone 72.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 19.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46