Riding profile
Orléans
The question
Orléans: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 47.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOrléans | 67.3% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +18.3 | 35.3% −15.4 | 4.8% −0.9 | 2.0% −0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +19.3 | 32.1% −12.3 | 10.6% −6.7 | 2.7% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Orléans, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 67% vote share, against 20% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 24% francophone, 68% anglophone.
Sitting member
Marie-France Lalonde
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-France Lalonde Elected | Liberal | 53,146 | 67.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Mansour | Conservative | 22,072 | 28.0 | Law Student |
| Oulai B. Goué | NDP | 2,063 | 2.6 | Teacher |
| Jaycob Jacques | Green | 652 | 0.8 | Mobilizer |
| Tafiqul Abu Mohammad | PPC | 331 | 0.4 | Realtor |
| Arlo Arrowsmith | Other | 301 | 0.4 | Claims Agent |
| Mazhar Choudhry | Independent | 162 | 0.2 | Software Architect |
| Arabella Vida | Independent | 76 | 0.1 | Ethan Vida Organization Officer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 23.5%
- Anglophone 67.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 8.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46