Riding profile

Ottawa Centre

Federal riding — ON · Urban · ottawa region

The question

Ottawa Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
44.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.1%
  • NDP 18.3%
  • Conservative 7.6%
  • Green 2.0%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereOttawa Centre 63.1%18.3%7.6%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +14.0 4.8% +13.5 35.3% −27.6 2.0%
National averageCanada 48.0% +15.1 10.6% +7.7 32.1% −24.5 2.7% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ottawa Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 18% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 5% francophone, 86% anglophone.

Sitting member

Yasir Naqvi

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
42.8 pts
Turnout
77.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Yasir Naqvi Elected Liberal 51,026 62.7 Parliamentarian
Joel Harden NDP 15,935 19.6 Parliamentarian
Paul D'Orsonnens Conservative 12,692 15.6 Director, Employment and Social Development Canada
Amanda Rosenstock Green 916 1.1 Policy Analyst
Andrea Chabot Other 268 0.3 Program Manager
Marie-Chantal Leriche Other 234 0.3 Natural Health
Cashton Perry Other 154 0.2 Assembly Worker
Mike Salmon Independent 66 0.1 Customer Service
Zed Chebib Independent 47 0.1 Retired, Construction

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 5.2%
  • Anglophone 85.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46