Riding profile
Ottawa Centre
The question
Ottawa Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Ottawa Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 20% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 5% francophone, 86% anglophone.
Sitting member
Yasir Naqvi
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa Centre | 59.8% | 20.4% | 9.6% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +14.2 | 6.4% +14.0 | 37.5% −27.9 | 1.6% |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +17.9 | 14.2% +6.2 | 34.8% −25.2 | 2.1% −0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasir Naqvi Elected | Liberal | 51,026 | 62.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Joel Harden | NDP | 15,935 | 19.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Paul D'Orsonnens | Conservative | 12,692 | 15.6 | Director, Employment and Social Development Canada |
| Amanda Rosenstock | Green | 916 | 1.1 | Policy Analyst |
| Andrea Chabot | Other | 268 | 0.3 | Program Manager |
| Marie-Chantal Leriche | Other | 234 | 0.3 | Natural Health |
| Cashton Perry | Other | 154 | 0.2 | Assembly Worker |
| Mike Salmon | Independent | 66 | 0.1 | Customer Service |
| Zed Chebib | Independent | 47 | 0.1 | Retired, Construction |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 5.2%
- Anglophone 85.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 9.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46