Riding profile
Hull--Aylmer
The question
Hull--Aylmer: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Hull--Aylmer, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 65% francophone, 26% anglophone.
Sitting member
Greg Fergus
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHull--Aylmer | 59.6% | 21.9% | 12.0% | 5.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 40.7% +18.9 | 26.9% −5.0 | 27.3% −15.3 | 7.0% −1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +17.7 | 34.8% −12.9 | 6.1% +5.9 | 14.2% −8.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Fergus Elected | Liberal | 31,978 | 62.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Jill Declare | Conservative | 8,727 | 16.9 | Member's Assistant - Director of Administration |
| Alice Grondin | Bloc | 6,248 | 12.1 | Student |
| Pascale Matecki | NDP | 2,855 | 5.5 | Program Manager |
| Frédéric Morin-Paquette | Green | 1,130 | 2.2 | Teacher |
| Jean-Jacques Desgranges | PPC | 341 | 0.7 | Lawyer |
| Alexandre Deschênes | Other | 208 | 0.4 | Professional Artist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 65.1%
- Anglophone 25.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 9.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46