Riding profile
Hull--Aylmer
The question
Hull--Aylmer: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 44.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHull--Aylmer | 64.1% | 20.0% | 12.0% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 45.4% +18.7 | 24.8% −4.8 | 27.3% −15.3 | 5.1% −1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +16.1 | 32.1% −12.1 | 5.7% +6.3 | 10.6% −6.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hull--Aylmer, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 64% vote share, against 20% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 65% francophone, 26% anglophone.
Sitting member
Greg Fergus
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Fergus Elected | Liberal | 31,978 | 62.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Jill Declare | Conservative | 8,727 | 16.9 | Member's Assistant - Director of Administration |
| Alice Grondin | Bloc | 6,248 | 12.1 | Student |
| Pascale Matecki | NDP | 2,855 | 5.5 | Program Manager |
| Frédéric Morin-Paquette | Green | 1,130 | 2.2 | Teacher |
| Jean-Jacques Desgranges | PPC | 341 | 0.7 | Lawyer |
| Alexandre Deschênes | Other | 208 | 0.4 | Professional Artist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 65.1%
- Anglophone 25.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 9.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46