Riding profile

Gatineau

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Gatineau: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 62.5%
  • Conservative 21.9%
  • Bloc 16.2%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • PPC 1.1%
  • Green 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereGatineau 62.5%21.9%16.2%3.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 45.4% +17.1 24.8% −2.9 27.3% −11.1 5.1% −1.9
National averageCanada 48.0% +14.5 32.1% −10.2 5.7% +10.5 10.6% −7.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Gatineau, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 86% francophone, 9% anglophone.

Sitting member

Steven MacKinnon

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
41.0 pts
Turnout
68.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steven MacKinnon Elected Liberal 34,751 60.5 Parliamentarian
Kethlande Pierre Conservative 10,982 19.1 Assistant Director
Richard Nadeau Bloc 9,373 16.3 Retired
Daniel Simoncic NDP 1,615 2.8 Entrepreneur
Mathieu Saint-Jean PPC 505 0.9 Public Servant
Pierre Soublière Other 173 0.3 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 85.8%
  • Anglophone 9.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46