Riding profile

Gatineau

Federal riding — QC · Mixed · fed qc

The question

Gatineau: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Gatineau, a mixed riding in Quebec, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 41-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 86% francophone, 9% anglophone.

Sitting member

Steven MacKinnon

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 58.0%
  • Conservative 23.7%
  • Bloc 16.2%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • PPC 1.0%
  • Green 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Bloc NDP
HereGatineau 58.0%23.7%16.2%5.1%
Provincial averageQuebec 40.7% +17.3 26.9% −3.2 27.3% −11.1 7.0% −1.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +16.1 34.8% −11.1 6.1% +10.1 14.2% −9.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
41.0 pts
Turnout
68.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steven MacKinnon Elected Liberal 34,751 60.5 Parliamentarian
Kethlande Pierre Conservative 10,982 19.1 Assistant Director
Richard Nadeau Bloc 9,373 16.3 Retired
Daniel Simoncic NDP 1,615 2.8 Entrepreneur
Mathieu Saint-Jean PPC 505 0.9 Public Servant
Pierre Soublière Other 173 0.3 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 85.8%
  • Anglophone 9.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46