Riding profile
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester
The question
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 64% vote share, against 15% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 19% francophone, 69% anglophone.
Sitting member
Mona Fortier
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 48.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa--Vanier--Gloucester | 63.8% | 15.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +18.1 | 37.5% −22.3 | 6.4% +0.8 | 1.6% +0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +21.9 | 34.8% −19.6 | 14.2% −7.0 | 2.1% +0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mona Fortier Elected | Liberal | 45,934 | 67.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Dean Wythe | Conservative | 14,633 | 21.5 | Senior Policy Advisor |
| Tristan Oliff | NDP | 5,164 | 7.6 | Management Consultant |
| Christian Proulx | Green | 1,345 | 2.0 | Construction |
| Marty Simms | PPC | 349 | 0.5 | Independent Consultant |
| Coreen Corcoran | Other | 338 | 0.5 | System Analyst |
| Elizabeth Benoit | Independent | 238 | 0.3 | Public Servant |
| Christian Legeais | Other | 182 | 0.3 | Documentalist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 19.1%
- Anglophone 68.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46