Riding profile
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester
The question
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 53.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOttawa--Vanier--Gloucester | 67.0% | 13.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +18.0 | 35.3% −22.0 | 4.8% +0.4 | 2.0% +0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +19.0 | 32.1% −18.9 | 10.6% −5.5 | 2.7% +0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 67% vote share, against 13% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 19% francophone, 69% anglophone.
Sitting member
Mona Fortier
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mona Fortier Elected | Liberal | 45,934 | 67.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Dean Wythe | Conservative | 14,633 | 21.5 | Senior Policy Advisor |
| Tristan Oliff | NDP | 5,164 | 7.6 | Management Consultant |
| Christian Proulx | Green | 1,345 | 2.0 | Construction |
| Marty Simms | PPC | 349 | 0.5 | Independent Consultant |
| Coreen Corcoran | Other | 338 | 0.5 | System Analyst |
| Elizabeth Benoit | Independent | 238 | 0.3 | Public Servant |
| Christian Legeais | Other | 182 | 0.3 | Documentalist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 19.1%
- Anglophone 68.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46