Riding profile

Ottawa West--Nepean

Federal riding — ON · Urban · ottawa region

The question

Ottawa West--Nepean: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
44.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.5%
  • Conservative 18.9%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 2.0%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereOttawa West--Nepean 63.5%18.9%5.0%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +14.5 35.3% −16.4 4.8% +0.2 2.0%
National averageCanada 48.0% +15.5 32.1% −13.2 10.6% −5.6 2.7% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ottawa West--Nepean, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 64% vote share, against 19% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 4% francophone, 81% anglophone.

Sitting member

Anita Vandenbeld

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
36.3 pts
Turnout
72.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anita Vandenbeld Elected Liberal 43,555 63.6 Parliamentarian
Ryan Telford Conservative 18,517 27.1 Public Servant
Josh Bizjak NDP 4,847 7.1 Executive Director
Prashanta Dhakal Green 780 1.1 Software Developer
Glen Armstrong PPC 514 0.8 Teacher
Sean Mulligan Other 232 0.3 Political Candidate

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 3.6%
  • Anglophone 80.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46